Status checked Oct 25, 2026, 12:37 AM · America/New_York
Observed Sep 21, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC · Last available price
The latest observed price above is market data. Forecast starting prices are issuance-frozen values and are labelled separately in Model Forecast below.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) stock forecast and scoring
Review the dated model forecast and five-factor Scorecard for MPC. Each has its own availability and reference date; a score is a relative comparison, not a price prediction.
12M forecast summary
Target date · Sep 21, 2027
Lower Estimate (P10)
$248.12
-38.3%
Median Estimate (P50)
$427.29
+6.2% from starting price
Upper Estimate (P90)
$705.37
+75.3%
$248.12Median $427.29$705.37
Median Estimate
$427.29
Starting price
$402.38
Change from starting price
+6.2%
Target date
Sep 21, 2027
Data through
Sep 21, 2026
The estimate uses its dated starting price. It does not predict returns from today’s quote.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) functions as a prominent integrated energy enterprise, primarily concentrating its downstream operations across the United States. Its business is bifurcated into two main divisions: Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment is responsible for processing crude oil and various other raw materials at its refineries, strategically located in the U.S. Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions. This division also acquires refined petroleum products and ethanol for subsequent distribution. Key outputs from this segment encompass a diverse array of transportation fuels, including different gasoline blends, heavy fuel oil, and asphalt. Additionally, it manufactures chemicals such as aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur. MPC sells these refined goods through multiple channels, including wholesale marketers domestically and globally, purchasers on the open spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who manage primarily Marathon-branded retail locations. It also supplies fuel via long-term agreements to direct dealer sites, predominantly under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment handles the comprehensive movement, storage, distribution, and commercialization of crude oil and refined products. This is achieved through its extensive network of refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges. Moreover, this segment engages in the collection, processing, and transportation of natural gas, alongside the gathering, transport, fractionation, storage, and marketing of natural gas liquids. By December 31, 2021, the corporation supported 7,159 branded jobber retail points, managed by independent entrepreneurs, spanning 37 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and Mexico. Marathon Petroleum Corporation, established in 1887, maintains its corporate headquarters in Findlay, Ohio.
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Research snapshot
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Risk / safety methodology: Safety describes recent price swings and distance from a recent high alongside cash flow and profitability. It is not a credit rating or a promise of protection from loss.
How its valuation measures compare with the group.
Quality
Plus or Pro
How its profitability and operating quality compare.
Safety
78.8
0255075100
Strong
How its price swings, distance from a recent high, cash flow and profitability compare.
Momentum
97.4
0255075100
Very Strong
How its recent price-trend measures compare.
Company snapshotDescriptive peer comparisonScore date: Sep 22, 2026Historical snapshot
All scores in this Scorecard describe relative characteristics as of the shown date, using historical market data and reported company information; higher scores on the 0–100 scale indicate more favorable characteristics in the relevant comparison group, and none forecasts future performance.
Scores are relative comparisons, not absolute grades: companies with different coverage may be scored on different inputs. Peer positions and input coverage can differ by factor; use the displayed comparison group and date when comparing readings. An 80 is not an 80% chance of a price rise. These scores are not price forecasts or recommendations.
The rank with complete inputs compares only companies with every input for that factor, using the issued scores. Equal partial coverage percentages do not establish matching inputs. Current stockwide snapshots use matching input groups; older snapshots may use a smaller fixed group. Scores do not separately adjust for industry or company size. Growth readings do not establish multi-year persistence or separate share-count effects from EPS growth. Scores are independent of the selected forecast horizon.
Research snapshot
Latest update · 2026-09-21
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Start with profit, cash generation and financial flexibility. Scores describe relative characteristics and do not predict returns.
Revenue · trailing 12 months
$153.95B
2025-07-01 to 2026-06-30
Net income · trailing 12 months
$8.55B
2025-07-01 to 2026-06-30
Free cash flow · trailing 12 months
$12.9B
2025-07-01 to 2026-06-30
Consolidated debt
$34.29B
At 2026-06-30
Dates and reporting periods
Market observations, financial reporting periods and report dates can differ. Each measure shows its own period.
Research data through 2026-09-21
Update published 2026-09-22
Currency: USD
Company comparison
Compare company metrics only when their currency, observation date and reporting periods agree. Similar companies are starting points for research, not substitutes for each other.
12-month forecasts show model median estimates (P50), with changes from each forecast’s starting price. Headline scores describe dated company characteristics; they do not predict future performance.